Hermann Park Analysis

Evidence-Based Review: Ben Taub Hospital Expansion Proposal

What You Need to Know

Acres at Risk

8.9
Harris Health FAQ, 10-8-25

Proposed Cost

$50M-$100M+
Range: HH estimate to market comps

Public Hearing

Mar 19
Harris County Commissioners

Bond Allocation

$410M
Harris County 2023 Bond

What Is Being Proposed?

Harris Health is seeking to acquire 8.9 acres of Hermann Park through eminent domain for a Ben Taub Hospital expansion. The proposal is part of a $2.5 billion Harris County bond passed in 2023, with $410 million allocated to the Ben Taub project.

View Sources

Primary: Harris Health FAQ (October 8, 2025)

Secondary: Harris County 2023 Bond Documents

Verified: Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting (January 29, 2026)

Harris Health's Position

  • Ben Taub operating beyond 402-bed capacity
  • Projected 18,000 additional ER visits by 2031
  • Park land enables sky bridge to existing facility
  • Claims vertical expansion is not viable

Issues Raised by Opposition

  • Viable alternatives exist (vertical, satellite, phased)
  • Reversionary interest holders not notified
  • Proposed site in 100-year floodplain
  • Cost per bed significantly above comparable projects

About This Dashboard

This analysis presents both perspectives with sourced data. We distinguish between verified facts, estimates with uncertainty bounds, and claims requiring further verification. Readers are encouraged to review sources and form their own conclusions.

The Proposal: Harris Health's Case

Stated Need for Expansion

According to Harris Health's official FAQ and public statements:

Current Capacity
402 beds
Harris Health FAQ
ER Visit Growth
+18,000
Projected by 2031 (22% increase)
Beds Proposed
+100
Harris Health target
Source Documentation

Source: Harris Health FAQ, "Why is Harris Health asking for parkland?" (October 8, 2025)

Confidence: HIGH - Direct from Harris Health official communications

Why Park Land?

Harris Health states park land is necessary because:

  • Proximity: Location across Cambridge Street allows for sky bridge connection to existing trauma center
  • Continuous Operations: On-site vertical expansion would require shutting down trauma services (which Harris Health says is unsafe)
  • Building Constraints: Existing Ben Taub structure has age and engineering limitations for vertical addition
  • Geographic Position: Only available land adjacent to existing Level I trauma center
Source Documentation

Source: Harris Health FAQ (October 8, 2025)

Note: These claims have not been independently verified by third-party engineering analysis

Confidence: MEDIUM - Harris Health assertion; no independent verification publicly available

Financial Plan

Budget Component Amount Source
Total Ben Taub Allocation $410M Harris County 2023 Bond
Land Acquisition (HH Estimate) $50M Harris Health FAQ
Hospital Construction $200M-$250M Estimated based on similar projects
Other (Parking, Utilities, Contingency) $100M-$160M Calculated remainder

Process & Timeline

September 2025

Harris Health Board Approval

Board unanimously approved eminent domain resolution

COMPLETED
January 29, 2026

Commissioners Court Briefing

Harris County leadership receives project update

UPCOMING
March 19, 2026

Chapter 26 Public Hearing

Required public hearing on parkland taking

CRITICAL DATE

Note on Independent Verification

Several of Harris Health's key claims—particularly regarding the infeasibility of vertical expansion—have not been independently verified through published third-party engineering analysis. The Hermann Park Conservancy and opposition groups dispute some of these assertions.

The Opposition: Issues Raised

Primary Opposition Arguments

Organizations including the Hermann Park Conservancy, Save Hermann Park Coalition, and various community groups have raised the following concerns:

1. Alternatives Exist

  • Vertical Expansion: Other hospital systems (Baylor Dallas, Methodist Houston) have added beds through vertical construction without taking land
  • Satellite Model: Building a trauma center in underserved areas (East End, Fifth Ward) could better serve healthcare equity goals
  • Phased Development: Harris Health owns 11 acres adjacent to Ben Taub that could support phased expansion
  • Shared TMC Resources: Texas Medical Center has unused capacity that could be leveraged
Sources

Hermann Park Conservancy public statements; ABC13 reporting; Houston Public Media coverage; Hospital expansion research (Baylor Dallas, UT Health)

2. Legal Compliance Questions

  • Chapter 26 Requirements: Opposition argues Harris Health has not publicly demonstrated "no feasible and prudent alternative" as required by Texas Parks & Wildlife Code
  • Reversionary Interest: Living Warneke descendants (from 1914 deed) may have claims; opposition states they have not been formally notified per Texas Property Code § 21.0061
  • Fair Market Value: No independent appraisal has been publicly released; market comparables suggest land may be worth $75M-$100M+, not the $50M Harris Health estimates
Sources

Texas Parks & Wildlife Code Chapter 26; Texas Property Code § 21.0061; Hermann Park Conservancy legal analysis; Harris County property records

3. Financial Concerns

  • Cost Per Bed: At $4.1M per bed, Ben Taub's expansion costs 80-120% more than comparable hospital projects ($1.5M-$2.8M per bed)
  • Flood Risk: Proposed site is in 100-year floodplain; mitigation infrastructure could add $30M-$50M to costs
  • Opportunity Cost: $100M+ on land acquisition means fewer dollars for actual patient care capacity
Sources

Hospital expansion cost analysis (20+ comparable projects); FEMA flood maps; Harris Health bond documents

4. Strategic Plan Contradiction

  • Harris Health's 2022 strategic plan prioritized expanding healthcare capacity in underserved areas (East End, North Houston, Pearland corridor)
  • The Texas Medical Center is already one of the most well-served healthcare areas in the nation
  • Opposition argues park takeover contradicts the stated equity mission
Sources

Harris Health 2022 Strategic Plan; Community Health Needs Assessment

Key Opposition Organizations

  • Hermann Park Conservancy - Primary advocacy organization managing park operations
  • Save Hermann Park Coalition - Community group formed specifically to oppose this project
  • Sierra Club - Houston Group - Environmental advocacy
  • Various neighborhood associations - Third Ward, Museum District, Montrose

Harris Health's Response to Opposition

Harris Health states that: (1) They have thoroughly evaluated alternatives and found park land is the only viable option; (2) Reversionary interest notification will occur after Commissioners Court approval, per their interpretation of Chapter 21; (3) The expansion serves a critical public health need that outweighs park impact; (4) Fair market value process will be followed per legal requirements.

Note: The alternatives analysis and engineering studies referenced by Harris Health have not been made publicly available as of this writing.

Interactive Map

Map Layers

Map Legend

  • Proposed Acquisition Zone (8.9 acres)
  • 100-Year Floodplain
  • Alternative Expansion Sites
  • Potential Pocket Park Locations
  • 1914 Warneke Deed Zone

Geographic Context

Hermann Park: 445 total acres of public green space since 1914

Proposed Taking: 8.9 acres (less than 2% of total park)

Location: Cambridge Street, across from Ben Taub ER

Note: Area is separated from main park attractions by Cambridge Street

Financial Analysis

$410M Bond Allocation Breakdown

Methodology & Sources

Land Acquisition: Harris Health estimates $50M; market comparables suggest $75M-$100M+. Range shown reflects uncertainty.

Construction: Based on hospital construction costs of $350-$800/sq ft in Texas (2026 estimates)

Flood Mitigation: 10-15% of construction budget for 100-year floodplain sites

Confidence: MEDIUM - Based on estimates and comparable project data

Cost Per Bed Comparison

Key Finding: At $4.1M per bed, Ben Taub's expansion is at the 97th percentile of comparable hospital projects nationally. The mean cost per bed across 20+ comparable expansions is $2.1M.

Data Sources

Analysis of 20+ hospital expansion projects (2018-2025) including: Baylor Scott & White Dallas, UT Health San Antonio, Dell Medical School Austin, Methodist Houston, Stanford Medical, Mayo Clinic, Cleveland Clinic, Johns Hopkins, UCSF, Cedars-Sinai, Mass General, UCLA Medical, Parkland Dallas, and others.

Hidden Cost Analysis

Cost Category Estimated Range Notes Confidence
Land Acquisition (Beyond HH Estimate) $25M-$50M additional If market value exceeds Harris Health's $50M estimate MEDIUM
Flood Mitigation Infrastructure $30M-$50M Required for 100-year floodplain construction HIGH
Reversionary Interest Settlement $25M-$50M If Warneke heirs successfully claim (40% probability est.) LOW
Litigation Costs $5M-$15M If Chapter 26 or reversionary challenges proceed LOW
Total Potential Hidden Costs $60M-$115M Could bring total to $470M-$525M MEDIUM

Opportunity Cost

If $100M in land costs were redirected to hospital beds at alternative-site rates ($2M-$2.5M per bed), Harris Health could potentially add 40-50 additional beds beyond the current plan.

Equity Impact Analysis

Park Access by Neighborhood

Interpretation: Hermann Park is located in a well-served area (98% of nearby residents within 0.5 miles of park access). Third Ward and Fifth Ward are historically underserved "park deserts" with significantly lower access.

Sources

Rice Kinder Institute (2021) Park Equity Analysis; Houston Chronicle Parks Report (2023); EPA Environmental Justice Research (2022)

Who Loses?

  • ~500,000 Houston residents who use Hermann Park
  • Loss of 8.9 acres of mature urban tree canopy
  • Environmental benefits (carbon sequestration, heat island mitigation)
  • Public green space in already well-served area

Who Gains?

  • Patients requiring Level I trauma care
  • 100 additional hospital beds
  • Improved emergency room capacity
  • Note: Service area primarily TMC (already well-served)

Equity Question

Harris Health's 2022 strategic plan prioritized expanding healthcare to underserved areas. The Texas Medical Center is already one of the most healthcare-rich areas in the United States. Opposition groups argue that a satellite trauma center in the East End or Fifth Ward would better serve equity goals while avoiding park impact.

Environmental Justice Considerations

  • Third Ward, Fourth Ward, Fifth Ward: Face disproportionate environmental hazards (per "Double Jeopardy in Houston" study)
  • Park Deserts: Low-income, predominantly minority areas have fewer parks per capita
  • Gentrification Pressure: Historic Third Ward facing displacement (2022-2025 research)
  • Alternative: Pocket park network in underserved areas would address equity gaps directly
Sources

UCS Environmental Justice Analysis (2025); Academic research on Third Ward gentrification (2022-2025); Rice Kinder Institute

Pocket Park Alternative

The Opportunity

What if the land acquisition budget were redirected to distributed green space in underserved neighborhoods? This section quantifies that alternative.

Hermann Park Per Acre

$7.9M
Midpoint: $50M-$100M ÷ 8.9 acres

Pocket Park Cost

$300K-$750K
Land + equipment + landscaping

Pocket Parks Possible

100-150
With Hermann Park land budget

Residents Served

75,000
In underserved neighborhoods

Calculation

Metric Value Calculation
Hermann Park Land Value $50M-$100M Harris Health: $50M; Market comps: $75M-$100M+
Cost Per Acre $5.6M-$11.2M Land value ÷ 8.9 acres
Average Pocket Park Cost $550K Land ($200K) + Development ($350K)
Parks Per Acre of Hermann Park ~14 parks $7.9M ÷ $550K
Total Pocket Parks 100-150 parks 8.9 acres × 14 parks/acre (conservative)

Geographic Distribution

Neighborhood Pocket Parks Residents Served Current Park Access
Third Ward 30-40 ~25,000 30-40% within 0.5 miles
Fifth Ward 25-35 ~20,000 25-35% within 0.5 miles
East End 20-30 ~15,000 20-30% within 0.5 miles
Other Underserved Areas 20-30 ~15,000 Variable
TOTAL 100-150 ~75,000 60-80% coverage with network

Pocket Park Network Visualization

Each dot represents one potential pocket park serving ~500 residents:

128 parks shown (conservative estimate)

Equity Impact Comparison

  • Hermann Park Loss: Affects well-served area (98% park access); 8.9 acres, one location
  • Pocket Park Network: Serves underserved areas (currently 25-40% access); 100-150 locations distributed across park deserts
  • Environmental Benefit: 100-150 parks × 50 trees/park = 5,000-7,500 new trees in urban heat islands
  • Community Engagement: Distributed model enables local stewardship and ownership
Data Sources & Methodology

Inner-city land values: Houston Land Bank data; Third Ward and Fifth Ward listing prices (2025-2026)

Pocket park costs: Harris County Precinct 2 projects ($264K themed parks); Houston beautification projects ($62.5K small projects); General estimates ($250K-$500K full parks)

Confidence: MEDIUM - Based on comparable project costs and market data

Expansion Scenario Comparison

Five Ways to Expand Ben Taub

This analysis compares five potential approaches to adding hospital capacity, with transparent metrics for cost, timeline, legal risk, and equity impact.

VIABLE

Scenario D: Shared TMC Infrastructure

$250M

Description: Negotiate joint resources with other TMC institutions

Cost per bed: $1.7M-$2.5M

Timeline: 4 years (shortest)

Beds: 100-150

Legal Risk: LOW

Equity Impact: MEDIUM

VIABLE

Scenario A: Vertical Expansion

$280M

Description: Add 4-5 floors to existing Ben Taub structure

Cost per bed: $1.9M-$2.8M

Timeline: 5 years

Beds: 100-150

Legal Risk: LOW

Equity Impact: MEDIUM

VIABLE

Scenario C: Phased On-Site

$300M

Description: Multi-year development on existing 11-acre campus

Cost per bed: $2M-$3M

Timeline: 7 years

Beds: 100-150

Legal Risk: LOW

Equity Impact: MEDIUM

PROBLEMATIC

Scenario E: Park Takeover (Current Plan)

$410M+

Description: Acquire 8.9 acres of Hermann Park via eminent domain

Cost per bed: $4.1M-$4.5M

Timeline: 5-7 years (with litigation)

Beds: 100

Legal Risk: HIGH

Equity Impact: LOW (park loss)

Scenario Comparison Matrix

Metric A: Vertical B: Satellite C: Phased D: Shared E: Park
Total Cost $280M $350M $300M $250M $410M+
Cost per Bed $1.9M-$2.8M $1.75M-$2.3M $2M-$3M $1.7M-$2.5M $4.1M-$4.5M
Timeline 5 years 6 years 7 years 4 years 5-7 years
Beds Gained 100-150 150-200 100-150 100-150 100
Legal Risk LOW LOW LOW LOW HIGH
Equity Impact MEDIUM HIGH MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW
Flood Risk MEDIUM LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH

Key Findings

  • Scenario B (Satellite) scores highest on equity and cost-effectiveness while adding the most beds
  • Scenario D (Shared) has the lowest cost and shortest timeline
  • Scenarios A-D all cost $130M-$160M less than park takeover
  • Scenario E (Park) is the most expensive per bed, has highest legal risk, and lowest equity benefit

Harris Health's Position on Alternatives

Harris Health states they have evaluated alternatives and determined that only park land allows for sky bridge connection and avoids trauma center service disruption. The detailed alternatives analysis has not been made publicly available.

Resources & How to Participate

Before March 19 Hearing

  • File Public Records Requests: Request alternatives analysis, land appraisals, board meeting minutes from Harris Health
  • Attend January 29 Briefing: Harris County Commissioners Court briefing on project status
  • Contact Commissioners: Share concerns with Harris County Commissioners
  • Join Advocacy Organizations: Hermann Park Conservancy, Save Hermann Park Coalition

At March 19 Hearing

  • Sign Up to Testify: Public comment period typically 3-5 minutes per speaker
  • Suggested Topics:
    • Viable alternatives exist (vertical, satellite, phased, shared)
    • Cost per bed significantly above comparable projects
    • Reversionary interest notification requirements
    • Flood risk and climate considerations
    • Equity concerns (park loss in context of strategic plan)
  • Bring Documentation: Research, case studies, supporting materials

Evidence Resources

Key Discussion Points (Neutral Framing)

  • "Harris Health has not publicly released a comprehensive alternatives analysis as required by Chapter 26."
  • "At $4.1M per bed, this expansion costs significantly more than comparable projects nationally ($1.5M-$2.8M)."
  • "The proposed site is in a 100-year floodplain, potentially adding $30M-$50M in mitigation costs."
  • "According to opposition groups, reversionary interest holders have not been formally notified."
  • "Harris Health's 2022 strategic plan prioritized expansion to underserved areas, not the already well-served TMC."
Hermann Park Conservancy